SpaceX priced its initial public offering at $135 per share on June 11, raising $85.7 billion in the largest IPO in history. The stock opened at $150. It climbed above $225. It fell to roughly $106 in premarket trading Monday, down more than twenty percent from the offering and more than half from the high.
On Tuesday after the close, SpaceX reports its first quarterly earnings as a public company. On Thursday, the lockup expires.
## The Report
Wall Street expects revenue of roughly $6.7 billion and a loss of twenty-six cents per share. The Q1 filing showed $4.69 billion in revenue, a net loss of $4.28 billion, and $930 million in Starship research and development in a single quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.1 billion. The company generates cash on operations and spends it reaching orbit.
Starlink accounts for sixty-one percent of revenue. Subscribers reached 10.3 million by March, more than double the 4.4 million a year earlier. Average revenue per user dropped from $99 to $66 over the same period. The subscriber count doubled. What each subscriber pays fell by a third.
## The Float
The IPO sold roughly 640 million shares. SpaceX has approximately 13 billion outstanding. The public float is under five percent of the company.
On August 6, two trading days after the earnings call, the first lockup tranche releases. Pre-IPO shareholders can sell twenty percent of their holdings: 911.5 million shares worth roughly $100 billion at current prices. This single tranche is larger than the entire existing float. More follows. Additional seven-percent tranches unlock on a rolling schedule through October, starting August 21. By mid-September, roughly a third of all insider shares become tradeable.
## The Insiders
Elon Musk owns forty-two percent of the equity and controls more than eighty percent of the votes through dual-class shares. His stake is locked until June 2027 with no early release. He cannot sell.
The employees can. SpaceX paid its workforce in restricted stock for years, some receiving shares at private valuations of $200 billion, others at $800 billion. The IPO was supposed to be the liquidity event. Instead the stock sits more than twenty percent below the offering price. The engineers who built the rockets are holding shares that have lost value every week since the stock peaked.
## The Customer
SpaceX holds $11.8 billion in active federal contracts from agencies overseen by the Department of Government Efficiency. Pentagon contracts awarded in 2026 alone exceed $8 billion, including Golden Dome satellite tracking, Space Development Agency launches, and Space Force missions. Musk leads DOGE. DOGE terminated contracts across the federal government. None were his.
SpaceX replaced Anthropic as one of eight companies on classified Pentagon networks after Claude was banned. Thirty-four analysts rate SpaceX a buy with an average price target of $237, more than double the current price. The consensus is that the stock will recover. The question is whether the insiders agree.
## The Sample
For eight weeks, the market has set SpaceX's price on less than five percent of its shares trading among public investors. The founders, early backers, and employees had no vote. They watched the stock rise and fall without being able to act.
On Tuesday the company delivers the evidence. On Thursday the people with the most information about what that evidence means deliver their response. The verdict can move a hundred billion dollars of stock into a market that has absorbed eighty-five billion total.