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The Forty Years

Samsung's Record $58B Quarter Reveals the AI Memory Boom's Hidden Cost

Samsung Electronics reported preliminary second-quarter operating profit of 89.4 trillion won, roughly $58.4 billion, on July 7. It is the largest single-quarter operating profit any technology company has ever recorded, surpassing Nvidia and Apple on a per-quarter basis. Revenue came in at 171 trillion won, missing consensus estimates of 172 trillion won. The stock fell 7 percent.

The profit was driven almost entirely by AI memory demand. DRAM average selling prices rose 90 percent in the first quarter of 2026, another 50 to 60 percent in the second quarter, and Samsung is negotiating a further 20 percent increase for the third quarter. NAND flash climbed 53 percent quarter-over-quarter. HBM commands higher margins than conventional DRAM, and Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have shifted production capacity toward it and away from traditional enterprise and consumer memory products.

Three days before the earnings release, Kim Yong-kwan, president and head of business strategy for Samsung's Device Solutions division, told employees at a town hall that the division's 2026 operating profit would exceed the cumulative profit it has earned over roughly 40 years in the semiconductor business. Analysts expect Samsung's 2026 annual operating profit to reach approximately 300 trillion won, around $200 billion. The company's cumulative operating profit from 1985 to 2025 was less than 300 trillion won.

One year will exceed forty.

The stock dropped because investors saw that fact and read it as a ceiling rather than a stride. Revenue missed. The full divisional breakdown arrives July 30, and the market wants to know whether the rest of Samsung survived the same memory-price surge that inflated the chip unit's profits.

It did not.

Samsung's mobile division is expected to report its first operating loss in history, estimated at approximately 1 trillion won, around $650 million. The Galaxy S26 set pre-order records. It was not enough. Memory chip costs have surged roughly 850 percent year-over-year, and the price a consumer will pay for a phone does not move in lockstep.

The mechanism is structural, not cyclical. Samsung's Device Solutions division and its mobile unit, known internally as MX, operate as separate profit centers. DS sells memory at market rates. It does not discount for its sibling. When AI data centers are willing to pay more for DRAM than Samsung's own phone business can absorb, DS ships to the data centers. MX competes for capacity on the same terms as every other smartphone maker in the world, except that the supplier setting those terms sits in the same building.

The foundry and System LSI divisions remained in the red. The TV and home appliance division posted a modest loss. The company's $58.4 billion quarter came from one business overwhelming every other business it funds, and in some cases, one business overwhelming the other businesses that share its name.

Samsung closed at 297,000 won, down from a previous close of 318,000 won. Its market capitalization sits at roughly $1.36 trillion. Samsung and SK Hynix together comprise more than half of the KOSPI.

Kim Yong-kwan's 40-year stat is the kind of number that sounds like a celebration. It is not. What it means is that the AI memory supercycle has compressed four decades of cyclical peaks into a single year. The DRAM market has always been cyclical. Every boom has ended. The question the stock price is asking is not whether this is the best year Samsung has ever had. It obviously is. The question is what happens when the cycle turns and the division that earned more than 40 years suddenly earns like one.

Meanwhile, the Galaxy S26 ships with components priced for an AI training cluster, in a phone that costs what phones cost. Samsung the chipmaker set the price. Samsung the phonemaker pays it.

The company posted the most profitable quarter in technology history, and it was a sell.